Scepticism Surrounds GDP Numbers and Growth Projections

During the Eid Al-Fitr celebrations last Friday, Syria’s Transitional President Ahmad Al-Sharaa announced that the country’s GDP grew between 30 and 35 percent in 2025 and projected that this year GDP will return to pre-conflict levels. In parallel, the Minister of Finance, Mohammad Yusr Barniya, announced that the 2026 budget totals USD 10.5 billion, a stark increase from the USD 3.5 billion budget from last year. Neither Mr Sharaa, nor Mr Barniya, explained the methodology used to produce these numbers. The GDP data, in particular, appears particularly disconnected from reality.