Opposition Armed Groups Topple Assad Regime (Open Access)
In twelve days, the offensive led by opposition-armed groups put an end to 24 years of rule of Bashar Al-Assad. Under the Assad regime, the 2011-uprising morphed into a 14-year conflict that has claimed the lives of over 300,000 civilians and displaced 14 million Syrians. On December 8, as the slogans of the 2011-revolution echoed again in the streets of Damascus, and thousands of detainees were released from the regime’s prisons, Bashar Al-Assad and his family fled to Russia, where they were granted asylum.
After propping up militarily and economically the Syrian regime for over a decade, Tehran and Moscow stood idle as Assad’s troops surrendered to the fast advances of opposition forces led by the hardline Islamist armed group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS).
In the first week of the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation launched on November 27, HTS and other Idlib factions took control of Aleppo; and in the second week, they secured control of Hama and Homs. By December 6, armed opposition groups from the south officially announced they were joining the offensive, and in a matter of hours, they expelled regime forces from Daraa, Suweida and Quneitra, taking control of the Nassib-Jaber border crossing with Jordan.
At a meeting in Doha on December 7, Arab powers, Turkey, Russia and Iran opened the discussion on the post-Assad era, with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, confirming that day that Moscow, Tehran and Ankara had agreed to stop military operations in Syria. The next day, Damascus was at the hands of opposition armed groups, and HTS leader, Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani gave a speech in the emblematic Umayyad Mosque in the Syrian capital.
As opposition armed groups took control of Lattakia and Tartous over the weekend, it has become apparent that Moscow had secured arrangements to protect their air base in Hemeimeem (Lattakia) and their naval base in Tartous. On Monday, Russian news agency TASS reported that the opposition’s armed forces that had captured Lattakia and Tartous over the weekend “did not and have no plans to penetrate the Russian military bases, which continue to operate normally.” This tacit agreement between opposition forces and Moscow may have factored in Russia’s decision to let Assad fall.
In the last two weeks, HTS has tried to reassure the Syrian people and has launched conciliatory messages towards civilians, Christians and Kurds, has promised amnesties and pardons to regime soldiers, and has portrayed itself as a mere tool to overthrow the Assad regime. In the governorates under their control, tense calmness reigns. Meanwhile, hostilities are intensifying in the frontlines between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
SDF and SNA hostilities
Three days after the HTS’ attack, the SNA (a coalition of armed groups backed by Turkey and in control of northern Aleppo and a strip in the northeast between Tell Abyad and Ras Al Ayn) launched operation “Dawn of Freedom” against the Kurdish-led SDF.
By December 3, the SNA had captured Tel Rifaat, a pocket in northern Aleppo under SDF control that did not have continuity with the rest of the AANES territory. Then, the SNA kept advancing eastwards, and hostilities with SDF forces escalated in Manbij (the AANES region west to the Euphrates river with a population of 300,000). On December 7, the SNA launched a large-scale attack against Manbij. By Monday, Turkish president Racip Tayip Erdogan told Andalou Agency that he welcomed “the clearing of terrorists from Tel Rifaat and Manbij,” in reference to the expulsion of SDF fighters. The Rojava Information Center (RIC) reported that “heavy clashes” between the SNA and Manbij Military Council were still “ongoing” as of Monday. In the early hours of Wednesday, SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi, in a post on ‘X’, confirmed that SDF fighters will “soon” leave Manbij after they reached a “ceasefire agreement with American mediation.” He added that their goal is a “cease fire throughout Syria and enter into a political process for the future of the country.”
On Tuesday, the SDF announced they had killed 100 “mercenaries” of the Turkish backed forces that had launched attacks “on the Quaraquwzaq Bridge, south of Kobani.” Commander Abdi confirmed SDF forces had thwarted attacks by Turkish-backed factions against the Kobani countryside (Qara Quozaq).
Meanwhile, the two neighbourhoods in Aleppo city that are under SDF control (Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh) are surrounded by HTS forces and have remained calm so far. The tone between the SDF and HTS has so far been conciliatory, with ongoing talks about the safety of these two neighbourhoods confirmed by both sides.
It is unclear how the diverging agendas of HTS and SNA will play out. On Monday, Salih Muslim, member of the Presidential Committee of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), quoted on North Press Agency, said that they were ready to “engage in dialogue with all Syrian parties” but stressed that the attacks in Manbij “aim to hinder a peaceful resolution.”
The standing of the SDF in the new power configuration in the country may be determined by their ability to reach a deal with HTS, but also on the military support of their main backer, the United States, a decision that lies in the hands of president-elect Donald Trump.
In parallel to the hostilities in Aleppo, the SDF has been expanding their territory southwards in Deir-ez-Zor and Raqqa. The SDF launched on December 2 the operation “Battle of Return” to take control of a handful of villages under regime control in Deir-ez-Zor.
As HTS and SNA kept advancing, so did the SDF.
By December 6, they took over the Al-Boukamal border crossing with Iraq, and by December 7, both Hassakeh and Qamishli cities were under SDF control after the withdrawal of Assad’s forces. The Qamishli military airport was hit by an airstrike on Monday, and it remains unclear who was behind the attack. On December 8, the General Command of the Internal Security Forces issued a curfew across AANES areas from 8 pm until 8am.
On Monday, Rojava Network reported about SDF raids in Deir-ez-Zor city, and videos circulated on social media depicting tensions and clashes between the SDF and groups in Deir-ez-Zor. Relations between Arab tribes in Deir-ez-Zor and the Kurdish-led SDF have often been tense, leading to serious clashes last year. As of Tuesday, the SDF was in control of all of Raqqa governorate, while advancing southwards in Deir-ez-Zor.
Ankara has accused the SDF of taking advantage of the escalation of hostilities to take over more territory. In response to those accusations, SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi said in a press conference on December 6 that the reason for their expansion was that after the withdrawal of regime forces, there was a “large vacuum in the Syrian desert, which is being filled by ISIS mercenaries.” He added that the areas of Deir Ezzor, Raqqa and Tabqa must be protected from ISIS attacks, and they were coordinating with the international coalition forces to confront the ISIS threat.
On December 8, the U.S. Central Command announced they had “conducted dozens” of airstrikes against ISIS camps and operatives in central Syria, striking 75 targets. These attacks aim “to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to reconstitute in central Syria,” the U.S. army said. “We will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” General Michael Erik Kurilla said adding that “all organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.”
Israel intensifies attacks
As the regime soldiers have been abandoning their positions, Israel has escalated its airstrikes against military facilities in a bid to avoid opposition armed groups seizing them. Among the recent locations targeted are the Latakia port, the 112th Brigade in Daraa, the 55th Air Defence Brigade in the Damascus countryside, and ammunition depots in Tartous and Lattakia.
Tel Aviv has continued its attacks on border crossings between Lebanon and Syria; for instance the Al-Arida crossing in northern Lebanon was hit on December 6, while Jesr Qamar and Joussieh were also hit in the last week, UNHCR reported. Israel has been constantly attacking Lebanese-Syrian border crossings since the escalation of hostilities in Lebanon in September.
On Monday, the Israeli Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, quoted in Times of Israel, said he had ordered the Israeli army to destroy “strategic weapons” in Syria that Israel fears could fall into the hands of “hostile forces.” He also instructed the army to “immediately prevent and thwart the renewal of the arms smuggling route from Iran to Lebanon through Syria.”
In the occupied Golan region, the Israeli minister said the army was instructed to create a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terror infrastructure” in southern Syria, including “beyond the buffer zone.” In a video statement on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – sought by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza – said that the 1974 agreement with Syria over the buffer zone in the Golan Heights had “collapsed” after Syrian soldiers abandoned their positions. “We gave the Israeli army the order to take over these positions to ensure that no hostile forces embed themselves right next to the border. This is a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found,” he said. As of Tuesday afternoon, conflicting reports emerged concerning the size of territory occupied by the Israeli army in southern Syria, with some reports indicating they were three kilometres the city of Qatana in Rural Damascus governorate.
In response to Mr Netanyahu’s remarks, the Arab League issued on December 8 a statement renewing its “full condemnation of what Israel (the occupying power) seeks to achieve illegally, taking advantage of the developments in the internal situation in Syria, whether in terms of occupying additional lands in the Golan or considering the 1974 disengagement agreement expired.”
Israel has a historic track record of occupying land, be it in Palestine, Lebanon or Syria, on the grounds of establishing “safe zones” around their borders. Israeli attacks in Syrian territory add a layer of instability at this delicate moment of power transition.
Humanitarian
The escalation of hostilities in the last two weeks have internally displaced one million Syrians, most displacements having been recorded in the governrates of Aleppo (542,600 displaced), Hama (347,100), and Homs (26,000), according to the latest figures from the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). But since December 7, OCHA has documented “significant and growing return movements.”
A big share of the displaced in Aleppo have been forced to flee due to the hostilities between the SNA and the SDF. In a statement on December 9, the Kurdish Red Crescent estimated that in two weeks “more than 120,000 people have been displaced from the Shahba (Tel Rifaat) region to northern Syria,” and added that “many have suffered violence and exploitation by the SNA which controls the road connecting the Shahba region to northeast Syria.” The NES NGO Forum, in a statement on December 9, estimated that the conflict in Tel Rifaat and Aleppo has displaced 100,000 individuals and that “a further 15,000 individuals are anticipated to be arriving in another convoy from Tel Rifaat.”
In terms of cross-border flows, according to UNHCR figures, between November 27 and December 7, 40,000 Lebanese returned to Lebanon (they had fled to Syria escaping Israeli attacks in Lebanon since September). And in the opposite sense, 12,000 Syrians are estimated to have returned to Syria since November 27. Many Syrians in Turkey have also started their return journey after the fall of Assad, although no clear figures are available yet.
The day opposition forces overthrew Assad, they took over the state television to announce the release of thousands of detainees. The head of the Syrian Network of Human Rights (SNHR) Fadel Abdul Ghany told The Syria Report that, so far, the number of released detainees is estimated at around 40,000. According to the SNHR database, the Syrian regime had detained approximately 136,000 people, of which 96,000 were “forcibly disappeared,” meaning their whereabouts remain to date unknown. This implies that most of the forcibly disappeared have indeed been killed.
Following the circulation of videos showing the state of prisons and the release of hundreds of emaciated detainees, the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM) in a statement on December 8, said they had “indications that, hour by hour, potential evidence of the Government repressive apparatus is becoming available, as fleeing regime agents retreat in haste.”
Citing conflicts like the one in Rwanda or former Yugoslavia, the IIIM stressed “how essential it is to preserve high-value information and evidence in time and to do so in a way that allows for its use in court. By doing this, we can help Syrian, domestic and international courts and tribunals in the future to adjudicate events and contribute to a collective understanding of the past and an indisputable recounting of the truth.” The IIIM has published guidelines on how to preserve information and evidence (click here).
World leaders’ reactions
The lightning opposition attack that led to the collapse of the Syrian regime has pushed many foreign powers to quickly shift their position. In the last couple of years, several Arab powers had started mending ties with the Assad regime, and in the last year, several European countries had also pushed the narrative that Assad’s victory was a reality on the ground that required adjusting policies.
Assad’s doomed fate was sealed at the Doha meeting on December 7. The foreign ministers of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and a representative of Russia issued a joint statement saying that the recent events in Syria require “all parties to seek a political solution to the Syrian crisis that leads to the end of military operations, and protection of civilians from the repercussions of this crisis.” The statement highlighted the need “to stop military operations in preparation for launching a comprehensive political process, based on Security Council Resolution 2254, to put an end to the military escalation.” The Arab powers and the Astana trio also stressed the need to “preserve the unity, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Syria, protect it from slipping into chaos and terrorism, and ensure the voluntary return of refugees and the displaced.”
On December 8, the day the regime was toppled, Iran’s foreign ministry issued a statement calling for the “the swift end of military conflicts, the prevention of terrorist actions, and the commencement of national dialogue with the participation of all sectors of Syrian society.”
The Russian foreign ministry said that Bashar al-Assad had been in talks with “a number of participants in the armed conflict” and “decided to step down as the Syrian President and leave the country, instructing the government to transfer power peacefully” but highlighted that Russia “was not a party in those negotiations.” Moscow announced they were in “contact with all Syrian opposition groups. We urge all the parties to respect the opinions of all ethnic and religious groups in Syrian society. We strongly support efforts to establish an inclusive political process based on Resolution 2254, unanimously adopted by the UN Security Council.”
Another key ally of Assad, China, put out a brief statement saying they “hope that stability will return as soon as possible.”
Turkish officials have blamed Assad for his own downfall given his reluctance in recent months to engage in a dialogue with Ankara. On December 8, Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan said that “with the Astana process, we had provided a break in the ongoing conflict in Syria and time for the regime to make peace with its people, but it did not take advantage of this. Especially in recent months, the rejection by the Syrian regime of the initiative launched by our President in anticipation of the upcoming process in Syria led to developments that proved us right.” He also announced that Syrian refugees in Turkey will be able to return to Syria soon.
The European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, said in a post on December 8 ‘X’ that the “end of Assad’s dictatorship is a positive and long-awaited development. It also shows the weakness of Assad’s backers, Russia and Iran. Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners, in Syria and in the region.” The next day, in the official statement published by the European Council, the E.U. stress the need for “all stakeholders to engage in an inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned dialogue on all key issues to ensure an orderly, peaceful and inclusive transition, in the spirit of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and in accordance with the will of the Syrian people.”
The E.U. Chargé d’Affaires to Syria, Michael Ohnmacht, met on December 6 with the President of the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC), Hadi Al-Bahra. A statement published by SOC said they addressed “the political and humanitarian implications, particularly the assurances being given to civilians and the efforts being made to ensure their personal safety and property, protect public facilities, restore the functionality of institutions and service directorates, and retain bureaucratic employees in their positions to fulfill their duties.” Mr Ohnmacht also met with representatives of the White Helmets on December 6 to discuss the “recent developments”, according to a social media post by the White Helmets.
A day before the fall of the Assad regime, U.S. president-elect Donald Trump, in a social media post, said that “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT” (the capitalisation is by Mr Trump). It is unclear if with these words he implied that a U.S. troop withdrawal from the northeast is on the table. Donald Trump, offering his analysis of the downfall, said that “Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this litreal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years. This is where former President Obama refused to honour his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in. But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them. There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid.”
On December 8, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a statement saying that the U.S. “strongly supports a peaceful transition of power to an accountable Syrian government through an inclusive Syrian-led process.” Concerning HTS’ role, Mr Blinken said they had “taken note of statements made by rebel leaders in recent days, but as they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.” These words could be read as a first step indicating their openness to review the designation of HTS as a terrorist group.
On Tuesday, Mr Blinken issued another statement where he said that “all nations should pledge to support an inclusive and transparent process and refrain from external interference. The United States will recognize and fully support a future Syria government that results from this process.” He added that the U.S. stands “prepared to lend all appropriate support to all of Syria’s diverse communities and constituencies.” And in reference to the new authorities he stated that “it is now incumbent upon all the opposition groups who seek a role in governing Syria to demonstrate their commitment to the rights of all Syrians, the rule of law, and the protection of religious and ethnic minorities.”
In a press stakeout on December 8, U.N. Special Envoy for Syria, Geir O. Pedersen said they were looking “forward with cautious hope to the opening of a new time—one of peace, reconciliation, dignity, and inclusion for all Syrians,” and he stressed the need to establish “transitional arrangements.”
The General Secretariat of the Arab League, in a statement on December 8, said that “the current critical stage requires all Syrians to uphold the concepts of tolerance and dialogue, and protect the rights of all components of Syrian society.” They also called on the international community to support the Syrian people “to overcome this transitional period full of challenges, including by lifting any sanctions to enable Syrians to move towards broader horizons.”
Throughout the conflict, Iraq stood by the Assad regime and the militias under the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) have backed the regime militarily. Last week, the HTS leader asked the Iraqi Prime Minister to prevent the PMF from supporting the regime and assured him the fall of Assad would not have negative repercussions on Iraq. Prime Minister Al-Sudani, on December 8, quoted by the Iraqi News Agency, emphasized “the importance of respecting Syria’s sovereignty and the right of its people to live in peace and safety while urging the international community to make serious efforts to support regional stability” and he also pointed at the importance of “bolstering security efforts along the Iraqi-Syrian border and reinforcing government initiatives to secure the borders.”
