Northeast

On Monday, the Syrian presidency announced that transitional president Ahmad Al-Sharaa and the SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi had signed a deal to “integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces within the institutions of the Syrian Arab Republic, emphasising the unity of Syrian territory and rejecting division.” 

The recent announcement by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) of a ceasefire in their fight against the Turkish state is bound to have broader regional political and security ramifications, although so far it has had limited impact in Syria. The SDF have said Ocalan’s call does not involve them, and Turkish attacks against northeast Syria have continued.

Syria's caretaker government in an attempt to revitalize the country's energy sector has turned to domestic energy sources, as international actors' response has proved minimal so far. The caretaker government recently announced the opening of a gas field in the Homs governorate and confirmed a deal with the AANES to import oil and gas from the northeast. 

In recent days, Turkish officials have escalated their threats of a large-scale military attack against the SDF, while the SDF and the leadership of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham have maintained a conciliatory tone, and suggested that the SDF could integrate into a future Syrian army.

The U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller announced in a press briefing on Tuesday that the ceasefire in northern Syria had been extended until the end of this week.  Hostilities between the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have escalated following the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS)-led offensive that ended up toppling the Syrian regime. While HTS and SDF have maintained a conciliatory tone, the SNA has focused in the last three weeks on taking over SDF territories.

The Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria (AANES) announced last week that traders and grocery shop owners are allowed to use U.S. dollars in their daily operations. The Syrian pound is the official currency in AANES territory, but in recent years, in parallel to the depreciation of the SYP, the use of the dollar has gained traction amongst citizens and within the AANES structures.

On October 28, Banque Bemo Saudi Fransi (BBSF) inaugurated a branch in Deir-ez-Zor, returning to the governorate 13 years after it departed following the outbreak of the Syrian conflict. With this move, BBSF has become the first private bank to return to the regime-held areas of Deir-ez-Zor.

After years of decline, cotton production is forecast to increase slightly this year and reach between 100,000 and 125,000 tonnes. However, the future of the industry looks grim, according to most analysts.

Since August, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) has issued several decisions reducing fuel allocations in the transportation sector prompting a wave of strikes by minibus drivers in different cities in the northeast. In AANES territory, those working in the transportation sector ­– such as drivers of vans, also called minibus – can buy determined amounts of subsidised diesel at SYP 550 per litre, while unsubsidised diesel costs 4,700 SYP per litre.

The Central Bank of Syria and the Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria authorities have recently issued warnings against dealing with the so-called frozen dollars and have warned about the rising number of advertisements in social media offering them.

The Syria Recovery Trust Fund has received EUR 9.03 million so far in 2024 from three donors: Denmark made a EUR 2.41 million contribution in January, Japan pledged EUR 1.96 million in April, and the United States announced a EUR 4.66 million donation in May. 

The state building efforts by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria have suffered a major setback with the postponement of local elections due to pressure by its main adversary, Turkey, and its main ally, the United States. The elections have been postponed until August, but given the political scenario, this may be the first of several delays or, even, an indefinite cancellation.

The Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria has estimated this year’s budget at USD 1.06 billion, with projected revenues of USD 670 million, primarily from oil revenues, resulting in an expected deficit of USD 389 million, with no clear plan on how this deficit will be covered.

The Autonomous Administration in Northeast Syria (AANES) has announced a remarkably low wheat procurement price of USD 310 per tonne for the current season, down from USD 430 in 2023, sparking a wave of protests from farmers in several cities, among them Qamishli, Raqqa, Darbasiyah and Amuda. 

The Iraqi Federal Government stopped issuing work visas for Syrians in January and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) followed suit, halting issuing not only work but also tourist visas for Syrian nationals as of March 29. These recent decisions restricting the possibility of Syrians to visit or reside in Iraq and the Iraqi Kurdistan region mark a shift in the until-now ‘welcoming’ policy environment towards Syrian refugees since the onset of the Syrian conflict. This move is expected to slash the flow of remittances from Syrians working in Iraq, a country that is hosting 263,920 Syrian refugees.

The Autonomous Administration in Northeast Syria has announced advancements in the establishment of an industrial city in Manbij that will host 610 shops and workshops on 430,000 square metres. Construction works started in 2023 and the project is bound to be completed in 2025.

The Syrian government has issued their wheat procurement prices at SYP 5.5 million (around USD 366) per tonne, a stark increase from the SYP 2.8 million per tonne offered to local farmers in 2023 and the SYP 2 million offered in 2022.

Amnesty International has documented “large-scale and systematic violation of rights” in the detention system in northeast Syria. The detention network in AANES areas holds 56,000 people; 10,000 of them (mostly men) in 27 detention facilities, and 46,000 (mostly women and  children) in two detention camps: Al-Hol and Roj. The U.S. has played a prominent role in funding the vast detention network in the northeast. Since 2015 up till now, U.S. military funding to Syria has neared USD 2 billion.

The Düsseldorf Higher Regional Court convicted on March 7 two people for sending funds to suspected Islamic State (ISIS) members held in Al-Hol and Roj camps in northeast Syria.

In a context where the industry lacks proper safety regulations and three-quarters of AANES revenues depend on oil production, business profitability comes at the expense of health and environmental rights. Since taking control of the oil fields in the northeast in 2018, the Syrian Democratic Forces have “contracted private businesses to run the oil fields in its territories to reduce operation costs,” and these actors rely on “primitive methods” to refine oil.